The question is if Moscow falls.. where can the Soviets draw the line? There isn't really anything to defend up to the Urals.. and there isn't much behind them. If Moscow falls, the logistical situation becomes much worse for the Soviets. Wasn't a significant volume of the heavy material carried by train from beyond the Urals to Moscow and other places before being taken to the various fronts? Obviously this could be replaced by lorries.. but the lorries were already stretched beyond capacity.
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With France defeated and a sea borne invasion from the west almost impossible to achieve against a full strength German army why and how would the German army be in an inferior position?
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Because the Red Army is likely to better use the time than the German army in terms of re-equipping and the expansion of army size. The Soviets were reforming after their sub-par performance in Finland and while such reforms would be difficult to calculate, Russian equipment was often better than German equivelents (sloping armour on tanks for example) and so letting Russia get on with their reforms while Germany waits seems unwise. I seem to remember a source from somewhere (although I cannot remember where) saying the Red Army intended to reach 500 divisions by the summer of 1942.. a significant increase and far beyond what Germany could realistically muster.
Basically Germany must either go to war with Russia now (and if you assume Hitler believed what he said.. this is unavoidable) or be worse off for subsequently forcing the issue in the immediate future. Since Hitler also appeared to be convinced he had to be the leader to see Germany expand he is unlikely to wait. While fifty two may not be ancient.. it isn't young. If you want to be there yourself as leader you don't have the time to wait for the long term decline of the Soviet Union.
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Pressé fortement sur ma droite, mon centre cède, impossible de me mouvoir, situation excellente, j'attaque.